Leaf peeping is one of the high points of fall in the Mid-Atlantic, but warmer-than-expected temperatures could slightly delay Washingtonians’ fall foliage viewing plans. According to a recent forecast from the National Weather Service's (NWS) Climate Prediction Center, much of the United States is likely to experience warmer than average temperatures this September to November, which could mean less vibrant fall foliage that doesn’t last as long as usual.
The report shows that there’s a 50 to 60 percent chance that fall temperatures in the DMV will be warmer than average. This comes after a hot, dry summer that has put trees through stress that could affect their potential to produce bright foliage, Ellen Powell, conservation education coordinator at the Virginia Department of Forestry, tells Time Out D.C.
The weather conditions in both summer and fall play a major part in the duration and color of fall foliage. “Most of Virginia was drier than normal and it was extremely hot this summer, so that is going to set the stage for what’s going to happen this fall,” she explains. Trees across the state are already dropping leaves to preserve water and nutrients while they’re still able to produce energy by photosynthesis, which means some species may never develop those bright fall hues. For example, severe drought in Shenandoah Valley, where leaf-peeping hotspot Skyline Drive is, points to a likely less spectacular than usual season.
More days of mild weather could help trees recoup; a decent amount of gentle, early fall rain could help but may not be enough to make up for the intense summer. “The best fall color years are ones with periodic rain and cool nights with warm, sunny days mixed in,” Melissa Nash, Project Manager for the Maryland Forest Service in Garrett County, Md., tells Time Out D.C. “I anticipate it won't be quite as vibrant and will lean more toward golden hues, not so much red and orange.”
But this doesn’t mean leaf peepers won’t have plenty to marvel at. Both Powell and Nash say that while colors may not be as vibrant as years past, the fall foliage in D.C., Maryland, and Virginia promises to be beautiful. Both states have a variety of different species that peak at different times, and last year still yielded a better-than-expected season despite predictions. "At some point there will be great colors, there just won't be a firework show where all the trees are the same color at one time," Powell says.
All the more reason to figure out when to expect peak fall foliage in Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Virginia so you’re prepared. The 2024 Fall Foliage Prediction Map, which is compiled from weather reports and user data by the Smoky Mountain region’s tourism arm, predicts that the first fall foliage in Washington, D.C, Maryland, and Virginia will appear by early October, with a peak toward the end of the month. Keep an eye out for fall foliage trackers from each state’s government website.