If you’re dreaming of a white Christmas, The Weather Channel has some intel you’ll want to check out. With recent cold snaps in the eastern half of the U.S., hopes are high for a snowy holiday, but the odds? They’re not exactly stacked in most of the Lower 48’s favor.
A “white Christmas”—in very technical terms—is when there’s at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. Light flurries or a thin dusting? That doesn’t count. The snow doesn’t even have to fall on Christmas Day itself, it just has to be there when you wake up.
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Predictably, the highest elevations of the West are prime white Christmas territory. You’re also in luck if you live in North Dakota, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan or parts of northern New England, where conditions are looking promising for a snowy holiday.
While colder weather is expected to slide back into the eastern half of the country as we inch closer to Christmas, there’s no widespread snowstorm on the horizon. A northward storm track hugging the Canadian border and a warmer trend out West could keep lower elevations snow-free this year.
Here’s the lowdown on recent Christmas weather to suggest the odds for this year: outside of the Mountain West, northern tier and northern New England, most areas have less than a 50% shot at snow. Last year was a bust, with just 17.6% of the Lower 48 waking up to snow on Christmas morning—the lowest coverage since records began in 2003. In stark contrast, 2022 was a winter wonderland for 53% of the country, thanks to Winter Storm Elliott’s icy grip across the West, Midwest and interior Northeast.
Historically, about 38% of the Lower 48 averages a white Christmas, but the numbers have swung wildly over the years—from a measly 17.6% in 2023 to an impressive 63% in 2009. Surprisingly, the South has pulled off a few white Christmases in recent years, so while the odds are slim, it’s not impossible. You can see all the numbers and make your own calculations here.
So will you have a white Christmas? Keep your fingers crossed, your eye on the forecast and your sled at the ready just in case.