Weather is the one thing out of our control, and when it unleashes storms, it can be anything from catastrophic with loss of life to simply making a rainy bummer out of your vacation. But experts warn that weather on the troubling end of the spectrum is increasing. “The Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva. “All residents and interests along the U.S. coast, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, should have a hurricane plan in place and always be fully prepared for a direct impact.”
We’re not saying you shouldn’t travel to those places, but just to ensure that you have an emergency plan in place and everyone in your group knows how it works.
Sadly, storms are so frequent that the naming convention, which goes through the alphabet, may not work this year. There are 20-25 named storms already predicted for this season, and the alphabet only has 26 letters...plus we usually don’t make storm names out of Q, U, X, Y and Z. One option can be to use the Greek alphabet once we run out of letters, as was done in 2020’s hurricane season. Also, the World Meteorological Organization has a list of extra names that can be used—this is the first year that its supplemental list may be needed.
Along with warnings of a super-charged hurricane season, AccuWeather meteorologists say climate change makes landfall more likely—in other words, not just bad storms but hurricanes touching down. “(While) we do not see a relationship yet between global warming and the total number of storms, the increase we are seeing is in the intensity of storms,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Brett Anderson. Anderson adds that the storms have intensified over the last 10 to 20 years.
Of the 20-25 named storms in the hopper, AccuWeather forecasts that eight to 12 could turn into hurricanes, with four to seven of them being major ones—with four to six direct U.S. impacts. There’s also the possibility of breaking the all-time record of 30 named storms in a single season (set in 2020).
What makes this year more likely for hurricanes? Dramatically warming ocean temperatures, Pacific waters turning from an El Niño pattern to a La Niña one, a stronger African Jet stream, and changes in the Bermuda-Azores high-pressure area.
As a reminder, last year’s toughest storms in the U.S. were Hurricane Idalia which hit Florida in August, Tropical Storm Harold which drenched southern Texas the same month, Tropical Storm Ophelia which roughed up North Carolina in September, and Hurricane Lee which hit the New England Coast before making landfall in Nova Scotia.