There was once a time not so long ago when even a handful of positive Covid-19 cases would be headline news, but since the summer of Omicron, Aussies have adjusted their expectations to live with Covid as the new normal. However, experts are now warning that we might be getting a little too comfortable with the idea of the virus spreading unchecked in the community.
What is the 'winter surge'?
Both state and federal health experts are sounding the alarm that a significant surge in cases over the winter period could push Australia’s hospital systems to breaking point. Cases are already climbing nationwide thanks to the double whammy of people gathering more frequently indoors during the colder months and the increasing dominance of the wildly communicable Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5.
These subvariants have thrown yet another curve ball at current containment strategies. Available vaccines are less effective against BA4. and BA.5. and someone who has previously been infected with these subvariants can catch them again just four weeks after recovery, according to recent research. This has underscored the importance of masks and social distancing despite almost all previously mandated health restrictions having been lifted.
Why are health restrictions being discussed again?
Health experts like the federal chief health officer professor Paul Kelly and NSW chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant are recommending that businesses reinstitute working from home where possible and that masks be worn in all indoor public settings. However, state premiers have resisted mandating these health measures.
There are now around 40,000 diagnosed cases being reported across Australia every day, although the true number of infections could be much higher due to unreported positive RAT tests and asymptomatic cases. But it’s not just Covid that’s causing concern. Cases of hospitalisations due to the flu and severe colds have been far higher this season, in part due to a lack of natural immunity caused by Australia’s strict border closures for the two years prior. The sheer volume of people requiring sick leave is also putting a strain on several industries, such as the hospitality sector and the entertainment industry. There are growing concerns that shift workers may choose to go to work while sick, since crisis payments for Covid-positive workers expired on June 30.
What's already being done?
There have been some actions taken to try and mitigate the impacts of these contributing issues. Flu vaccinations were made free for the entire month of June, and this offer was then extended until mid-July. The government vaccinations advice body ATAGI also approved people aged 30 or over for a fourth dose of the Covid vaccine from July 11. Prime minister Anthony Albanese has also pushed for anti-viral drugs and similar therapeutics to be more widely available.
However, health experts have urged caution about relying solely on vaccinations for protection, since the two dominant subvariants in Australia have been shown to evade much of the immunity vaccines provide against other strains such as Delta. However, authorities in several states have so far pledged not to reinstate mask mandates and WFH orders; only Victorian health minister Mary Anne Thomas has tentatively entertained the notion, telling 3AW radio that “various ideas are floated, but no ideas have been taken".
The public is being encouraged to readopt many of the behaviours that became second nature in 2020 and 2021, such as wearing a mask in public places, enhanced hand hygiene, social distancing and staying at home following the onset of even minor symptoms. But as far as official mandates are concerned, it seems highly unlikely that enforced health measures will be reinstated, although recent concerns are nonetheless a sobering reminder that the pandemic remains far from a thing of the past.