Premier Gladys Berejiklian has urged the people of NSW to brace for the peak of the current Delta outbreak, which could be just days away. “According to the modelling I have received, we are likely to reach a peak in cases in the next week or so, that is what the modelling tells us, therefore we are likely to peak in intensive care beds required around mid-to-late October,” Berejiklian said.
The modelling predicts that cases will continue to rise, particularly in the 12 LGAs of concern, until mid-September, reaching a daily peak of more than 2000 cases of community transmission. After this point, immunity through vaccination should reach sufficient levels to begin reducing the number of new cases.
The data, released by the NSW government on September 6, projects that the maximum number of people in ICU with Covid-19 will be 560, possibly around the end of October. However, the state has prepared to admit as many as 1550 intensive care patients. Currently, there are 177 people in ICU, compared to a peak of 50 ICU patients during Sydney’s first wave in 2020. Berejiklian noted that models are subject to change and that the numbers projected could shift, but also reassured the people of NSW that the promised but as yet unspecified freedoms that will be permitted once 70 per cent of adults are fully vaccinated would not be impacted by the projected increase in ICU demand. “The reason why it’s really important for us to get this information available to all of our citizens is that the biggest determinant of whether someone ends up in hospital or not is whether they have been fully vaccinated,” she said.
The state’s chief medical officer Dr Kerry Chant also issued a warning to Sydney that cases outside of the 12 LGAs of concern are climbing. Until now, more than 80 per cent of cases have been linked to the suburbs in Sydney’s south and southwest. As a consequence of this, people living in these areas have been under strict surveillance and the tightest lockdown measures ever introduced in NSW. However, cases have continued to rise in other parts of state and certain areas in Greater Sydney are now experiencing a concerning increase in community transmission, Chant has said, particularly on the Central Coast.
Chant urged people who may have symptoms but are worried about being punished for breaking lockdown rules to come forward for testing, suggesting people won’t be fined if they test positive. Appealing to people to come forward for vaccination, Chant said that she hoped the state would reach a single dose tally of 80 per cent of eligible adults within the next week. Once NSW has reached 80 per cent of adults fully vaccinated, the premier has said that international travel could be allowed to recommence for double-jabbed people.
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