Spiralling case numbers and surging hospitalisations have made bleak headlines over the past several weeks, but premier Gladys Berejiklian has been urging the residents of NSW to focus on key vaccination milestones as hopeful indicators for when lockdown measures can begin easing. On September 2, the state reached a major vaccination target, as 70 per cent of adults in NSW have now had their first dose of a vaccine. With this level of single doses now achieved, the state can project with some confidence the date in October when lockdown settings will be relaxed for fully vaccinated people, which is likely to be October 18. To date, just under 39 per cent of eligible adults over the age of 16 have been fully vaccinated in NSW.
Once 70 per cent of eligible adults have been fully vaccinated, hospitality venues, gyms and shops are likely to be permitted to open for fully vaccinated patrons only. The next key target will be reached when 80 per cent of the adult population has had a single jab. According to the federal government's four-phase roadmap out of the pandemic, which the NSW premier has agreed to follow, once 80 per cent of adults have been inoculated, international travel could be allowed to resume and unvaccinated people could be granted some additional freedoms.
However, while reaching the 70 per cent first dose target is a significant moment for both NSW’s and Australia’s pathway out of the pandemic, Berejiklian has been careful not to sugarcoat the realities of what life may be like when lockdown measures begin lifting. While case numbers have been steadily climbing in NSW, lockdown measures have managed to keep the viruses replication rate, known as its R0, to around 1.3-1.6, meaning that for every ten people diagnosed, another 13-16 have been infected. In other parts of the world where lockdown measures have been lifted, the R0 for the Delta variant is commonly between 6-8, proving that, while not enough to totally suppress the virus, NSW’s lockdown settings are at least slowing its spread to more manageable levels. Check out our explainer about how the R0 works here.
Berejiklian has warned that October will be the hardest period for the state’s medical personnel and infrastructure, as lifting measures for vaccinated people may lead to an increase in cases amongst the unvaccinated. The two vaccines currently available in Australia are between 80-90 per cent effective at preventing serious illness or death from Covid-19, however, breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people are also inevitable once the state begins easing lockdown measures.
In the press conference on September 1, Berejiklian made explicit for the first time the reality that reaching a “Covid zero” total suppression of the virus, which until mid-June allowed life in NSW and elsewhere in Australia to carry without the need for many health protocols, was now impossible. Many health guidelines – including checking in at venues, capacity limits, mask use and vaccination passports – are likely to be necessary well into 2022 or even further into the future, the premier warned.
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