The NSW health minister Brad Hazzard has revealed a startling prediction of the potential impacts of the Omicron variant in the coming months. Early clinical observations suggest the R0 of the virus – which tracks the number of people a single infected person can pass the virus on to – could be as high as 1.5, which is notably higher than the Delta strain. Hazzard said that early modelling predicted that as many as 25,000 new cases could be diagnosed a day in NSW by the end of January – up to 175,000 new cases a week – although he did remark that the “algorithms” used to create these models are subject to change.
Both Hazzard and the state’s chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant said Omicron is now confirmed as being significantly more transmissible than the Delta strain, and that the new variant was the cause of the significant spike in cases in NSW, which have jumped from 529 cases on Monday December 13 to 1,347 cases on Wednesday December 15. It also appears that acquired immunity from a previous infection does not prevent reinfection with Omicron and that two doses of a vaccine does little to reduce transmissibility, making the need for a booster shot even more vital, although as yet, not legally required.
However, Hazzard added that “it would appear that the severity of the illness is not as bad as other strains,” while Chant added that the “clinical severity” of Omicron was still under investigation. NSW premier Dominic Perrottet added that the metric of concern should now shift away from daily diagnosed cases and focus on patients in ICU beds, as NSW adjusts to the reality of 'Covid-normal'.
This new information about the Omicron variant is particularly stark given the changes to NSW’s health rules from December 15. Almost all health measures have now been lifted and unvaccinated people may now access all businesses and venues that were previously only accessible to vaccinated people.
Hazzard also warned against attending venues with crowds and “thumping music”, saying: “Getting back to normality is great… but we should go quietly amid the joy and haste,” adding that if people “wanted a Christmas”, they should avoid public gatherings. Counterintuitively, these remarks come on the same day as capacity limits on nightclubs have been lifted.
The state’s definition of a close contact has also been softened. Instead of being required to isolate for seven days, close contacts will only need to return a negative result from a PCR test.