We might have dodged the latest hurricane, but Miami’s still not out of the proverbial woods. In fact, the latest forecast is looking pretty damn grim. Global real estate company Cushman & Wakefield has just released a comprehensive analysis ranking the world’s most at-risk cities for climate-related hazards, and Miami has taken the top spot for the Americas.
Mere days ago we were celebrating Miami’s moment in the sun as the country’s best foodie city (at least according to one study). Now, it’s feeling like we’ve probably had enough sun. Yeah, we’re good on the sun for a bit, thanks!
It’s no secret that the warming planet and rising sea levels present an existential crisis for most major cities around the world, especially those in coastal regions. Miami’s already been dubbed a “ground zero” for climate risk but, for some reason, people can’t stop moving here (or building giant new luxury buildings along our waterfront). Maybe the findings from this study will serve as a fresh wake-up call?
Cushman & Wakefield’s report highlights the variation in the level and type of climate-related hazard exposure in 100 global cities, and how this is forecast to change in the future, across eight hazard types: wind, precipitation, heat, fire, drought, cold and hail.
Hazard scores were derived from Jupiter Intelligence’s ClimateScore Global physical risk analysis software for each site and then averaged to provide a city score. The scores range from 0 to 100, with 100 being high risk. Miami was the only city in the Americas to punch close to an overall score of 100. Orlando and Houston received the next highest scores, hovering just above 90, while Jacksonville and Tampa ranked similarly but a bit lower with scores of 90.
So, things aren’t looking too great for Florida’s big cities. But Miami specifically received extremely high scores in the hazard categories of Precipitation and Drought (~100) and very high scores for Wind and Heat (~80). Our Flood score hovered just under 70. Basically, if you were worried about Miami becoming the next Atlantis, you might find some comfort in the similar likelihood that we’ll actually be blown off the map, or simply parched to oblivion.
And, hey! We’re in good company. Outside the Americas, Shanghai and Mumbai also received astronomical risk scores. Sadly, the hazard risk curve for APAC cities is looking pretty steep compared to everywhere else. As for Europe, the study says Amsterdam is the most at-risk, with an overall score of around 80. After that, Berlin received a score of around 70. Both of those cities’ highest hazard risk was flooding.
It’s not all bad news, though. The study does lay out some risk management and mitigation strategies. For instance, Miami might look to San Jose as an example when it comes to maintaining a reliable water supply. Their regional wastewater facility has backup power supplies for blackouts, cogenerates power to use gases that otherwise would cause air pollution and recycles water to reduce dependence on imported water. Great job, San Jose!
If you’re curious about where other cities in the Americas fall (hint: Maybe we should all start considering moves to San Diego, Bogotá or Lima) or you want to read more on the methodology, you can check out Cushman & Wakefield’s Global Cities Outlook on Climate Risk report here.