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Melbourne is set to overtake Sydney as the nation’s largest city by 2031

After a mid-pandemic mass exodus that saw our city’s population go backwards, it’s officially on the rise again

Leah Glynn
Written by
Leah Glynn
Melbourne Editor
Melbourne from above at dawn
Photograph: Urlaubstracker on Unsplash
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The famed Harbour City sure has taken a couple of hits lately when it comes to the ol’ Melbourne vs Sydney rivalry. First up, there was the news that Melbourne came in as the fourth most LGBTQIA+-friendly city in the world, while Sydney didn’t even crack the top ten. Next, Melbs was officially crowned the friendliest city in the world (Sydney came in at number 13). And now, the Victorian capital is on track to dethrone its NSW counterpart as Australia’s largest city by the start of the new decade.

That’s not to say it hasn’t all been smooth sailing for Melbourne, oh no. During the height of the pandemic, the city’s population growth dipped into the negative, falling by 1.6 per cent during 2020-21 thanks to a complete stop on overseas migration and residents packing up to move interstate (hello, sunny Queensland!). 

​But according to the federal government's most recent Centre for Population forecast, Melbourne has bounced back and remains on course to snatch the title of our nation’s most populous city. That means by 2031-32, our fair city will be home to approximately 6.1 million people. And overall, Victoria’s entire population will swell from 6.6 million now to 7.8 million.

To be fair, it’s not that surprising for us locals – we do have great restaurants, bars, exhibitions and gigs, after all. And now we’ll just have more people to share them all with.

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