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Whether you're in NSW or Victoria, we're all sick of lockdowns. We all want things to open up as soon as possible, but both states are not reopening properly until specific vaccination targets are met. But have you wondered why we're waiting till those targets are met? What would happen if we simply opened up now? And as cases continue to rise, do lockdowns even help?
The phrase used at just about every press conference right now is "Doherty modelling", but what exactly is that, and what does it mean for reopening plans?
What is the Doherty modelling?
The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity is a joint venture between the University of Melbourne and the Royal Melbourne Hospital. It's a scientific organisation with the aim "to improve health globally through discovery research and the prevention, treatment and cure of infectious diseases".
Lots of different scientists and institutions have tried to predict what would happen in Australia given certain scenarios, based on the path the pandemic has taken here and overseas. These best guesses form modelling, and many different organisations have created different models for likely Covid-19 infections and deaths based on different criteria. Right now, it is the modelling from the Peter Doherty Institute that is informing the national for reopening Australia – otherwise know as "the four-phase plan" – buit different states are planning their own tailored versions of this reopening strategy. National cabinet, which includes Prime Minister Scott Morrison and every state premier and chief minister, has accepted the Doherty modelling as what would happen to Australians as the most likely scenario given various vaccination rates.
If we opened up right now, what does the Doherty modelling predict would happen?
About 50 per cent of Australian adults over the age of 16 are currently fully vaccinated, so what does the modelling say would happen if we were to move to the next phase and reopen the economy now? Well, over the next six months, it's estimated that around 950,000 Australians would be diagnosed with symptomatic Covid-19. That's almost a million Australians who would get sick with the virus. An estimated 38,000 of them would need to be hospitalised, with about 10,000 of them requiring ICU care. The modelling predicts somewhere in the ballpark of 6,840 would die.
What if we opened up with 70 per cent fully vaccinated? How about 80 per cent?
If states wait until 70 per cent of people over 16 are fully vaccinated to open – as NSW is planning with its 'roadmap to freedom' – the modelling predicts those numbers drop significantly, but there will still be notable numbers of hospitalisations and deaths. It's estimated that about 389,000 people nationally would become infected with symptomatic Covid-19, 12,700 of them would require hospitalisation, and 1,520 people would be expected to die over the next six months. If, however, states wait for 80 per cent full vaccination, which is the Victorian strategy, the number of infections is expected to drop to about 276,000, with almost 9,000 who would need to go into hospital. The number of Australians who would die would be expected to be 780, based on the modelling.
How does that compare with yearly flu deaths?
None of these numbers are set in stone, and they are the best guesses based on data and research by scientists who specialise in epidemiology. But it is very clear that thousands more people would die unnecessarily if lockdowns were to end right now. While the current lockdowns haven't totally suppressed the virus, as has been the case with all previous Australian lockdowns prior to Delta, they have significantly slowed the spread of the virus, kept the R0 at a tolerable number, and bought us more time to get more people vaccinated. And for anyone who says "what about the flu", deaths from influenza have not gone above 1,200 any time in the past five years, with an average of 508 per year. The number of Australians who are expected to die of Covid-19 even if lockdown measures stay in place until 80 per cent of people are fully vaccinated still outstrips the average number of deaths from influenza. If we were to open right now, the number of people who would die from Covid-19 is expected to be more than ten times higher.