1. You're only the frontrunner until you're not
Much will be said about the deflating prospects of Boyhood, a film that went from critical darling to inevitable winner to virtual bust. (It only took home a single award for Patricia Arquette's supporting performance.) Perhaps all the happy talk around the movie's Oscar chances had little to do with the way AMPAS actually thinks: The opportunity to salute Birdman, a film about a Hollywood actor's redemption, proved too tempting.