If you’re one of the many Californians for whom avocados are as essential to your 4th of July spread as apple pie, prepare for your guac to be a little extra pricey this year. Going into the very holiday weekend when avocado consumption typically spikes during the year, the LA Times reports that wholesale prices for locally-grown avocados are up almost 32 percent from just one month ago. If you're like us and eat avocados with almost every meal, you've already noticed this.
Several factors have contributed to the price jump. Mexican avocado producers have been growing bigger fruits in higher numbers, which had prices uncommonly low as recently as April. However, now experts are saying those same growers over-committed and under-delivered going into the summer season and there now just aren’t enough Mexican avocados coming over the border to meet demand.
That puts the burden of making our toast delicious on California growers, who would be happy for the challenge were it not for all the recent heat, wind and wildfires that have done major damage to local orchards, and have only compounded upon the existing challenges of drought and labor shortages.
One farmer told the Times that he lost five of his 29 avocado trees to June’s heat, cutting his season of selling at the Santa Monica Farmers Market to an abrupt end. Others expect to be showing up to local farmers' markets with only “dropped fruit”—less-attractive avocados that can be salvageable for the guacamole bowl, but would be unlikely to get chosen on a supermarket shelf and, thus, aren't suitable for commercial sale. Taking those fruits out of the wholesale-to-retail chain further limits the supply available to grocery stores and drives retail prices up even more.
There is reason to believe these higher prices may be sticking around for a while. Costs to local farmers for municipal water remain high due to the drought, the La Niña summer promises hot and dry conditions for months to come, and even under the best of conditions it can take years for orchards to rebuild bushy, productive plants after they’ve shriveled up. We're devastated to say this, but it might be time to find an alternative dip for your holiday snacking.