Now that both Lollapalooza and Pitchfork have announced their bills, it's time we turned our third eye to the last big summer music festival of the season. Riot Fest has pulled some big rabbits out of its hat in the last couple of years, pulling the Replacements and the Cure out of your high school dreams as nostalgic headliners. The three-day affair in Humboldt Park keeps getting bigger and bigger—perhaps too big, considering the state of the grounds after the 2014 weekend. With some major touring rock acts suspiciously left out of the Chicago festival slate so far, here are some guesses and odds of who might be playing September 11–13.
Modest Mouse Isaac Brock and his nautical crew have yet to lock in a local date in support of its latest album, Strangers to Ourselves. This seems the most likely headliner. PERCENT CHANCE: 90%
Faith No More If Riot Fest loves anything, it's reunions and metal. The weirder-than-you-remember art-rock band fronted by Mike Patton returns with a comeback album. Faith No More hit Concord, a Riot Fest–friendly venue, in early May and have dates slated through August. PERCENT CHANCE: 75%
System of a Down Speaking of oddball headbangers, this nu-metal outlier is also back on the circuit. SOAD hits Michigan in late July, and heads to South America in late September, so chances are fair. PERCENT CHANCE: 55%
Brandon Flowers We were shocked not to find the Killers frontman on the Lollapalooza lineup. Lolla loves those dudes, and he's touring fests pretty hard with his fresh second solo album, with dates locked in till early August. The Killers are playing a couple times, too, but that seems like a couple of random cash grabs. PERCENT CHANCE: 40%
Muse The Rush of Generation Y tours brings its lasers and riffs to arenas all summer for its new album, Drones. The British trio is on the road and in the jets through late July, with a Japan date being the latest on the scheduley. Still, they might be too big for Riot Fest, which sounds crazier as we type it. PERCENT CHANCE: 33%
No Doubt Gwen Stefani has been licking her wounds lately, as her recent solo singles bombed about as hard as that last No Doubt album. Riot Fest loves ska-punk and this '90s flashback could use a festival headliner set to boost its status, and is in fact playing a couple on September 5 and 18. Oh, hey, Riot Fest is right in the middle of that. PERCENT CHANCE: 33%
Mumford and Sons Have you heard this folky foursome has ditched banjos? They're toughening up their image with electric guitars. Riot Fest would be another credibility stud in their uncomfortably worn leather jackets. After closing the Reading/Leeds Festivals in England, their calendar is clear. Hey, it's possible. PERCENT CHANCE: 15%
The Black Keys Whenever there is a festival, there is a chance these dudes will show up. The duo has nothing locked in locally and is on the road through early August this summer. PERCENT CHANCE: 14%
AC/DC It would be a major coup, but as we said, Riot Fest keeps surprising us every year. The aging icons are on the road in Europe all summer, up to late July in Poland. No gigs on our continent have been announced. Still, we see them raking in a lot more money in their own stadium. PERCENT CHANCE: 8%